We know that no-deal is still at least a plausible outcome, but is far less likely than the base case of a bare-bones trade deal covering most or all goods. Despite the crossfire of squirts from the EU source bottle, there is not much further to be said about the chance of a no-deal Brexit.
Additional briefings on the meeting may be released throughout the morning, further altering perceptions of its significance, and of the state of play. Barnier spoke with EU ambassadors this morning, with Bloomberg quickly citing anonymous sources in reporting he told them that three obstacles remained to a deal. The Financial Times, in turn, reported that Chief EU negotiator Barnier was coming under pressure from EU capitals over prospective concessions to the UK. Sky’s Adam Parsons was quick to cite both EU and UK sources - anonymous of course - that negotiations could not become any more intense. Last night Times Radio reported Tom Newton Dunn claimed on Twitter that trade talks had entered the “tunnel”, or an intense phase at the end of negotiations. Sterling has been knocked sharply lower this morning by an anonymous report that Michel Barnier has told EU ambassadors that three obstacles remain in the path of a trade deal with the UK. Brexit news flow has been thick in recent days and yet not much in the way of concrete information is available aside from that offered by anonymous sources. Hieronder volgt een kort commentaar in het Engels van Ranko Berich, Head of Research bij Monex Europe op de Amerikaanse dollar, euro en het Britse pond.
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